Mumbai: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may return to power in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and retain power in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, according to assembly seat projection made by India TV-Matrize opinion poll, results of which were telecast on the news channel on Saturday (30 July).

On the other hand, the ruling Trinamool Congress may retain power in West Bengal with a reduced majority, while TRS & Aam Aadmi Party may continue to remain in power in Telangana and Punjab respectively if elections are held now, says the opinion poll.

Following are the details of the opinion poll from different states:

Rajasthan

In the 200-seat Rajasthan assembly, if elections are held now, BJP may win 148 seats, Congress may win 42 seats, and ‘others’ including independents may win 10 seats, according to the opinion poll. In the 2018 elections, BJP had won 73, Congress had won 99 and others had won 28 seats. Voting percentage: BJP 52 percent, Congress 31 percent and others 17 percent if elections are held now. The assembly elections are scheduled for next year.

Asked about favourite choice for CM, Ashok Gehlot leads with 27 percent, BJP leader Vasundhara Raje comes second with 22 percent, and Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat with 19 percent. Congress leader Sachin Pilot got 11 percent support from respondents.

The biggest electoral issue among respondents was: (1) the government’s performance 31 percent and (2) Narendra Modi factor of 26 percent (3) MLA’s work 14 percent and (4) Communal polarization 12 percent.

Asked about the effects of Kanhaiyalal’s beheading in Udaipur, 69 pc said ‘yes’ and 23 pc said ‘no.

Asked which party they would prefer to form government next year, 57 percent said BJP while 27 percent said Congress. Asked in whose name will you cast your vote, 42 per cent said, “in Modi’s name”. Only 28 percent said “in Ashok Gehlot’s name”.

Gujarat

In the 182-seat Gujarat assembly, BJP is going to retain power by winning 108 seats, Congress may win 55 seats, AAP may win eight seats and others including independents may win 11 seats. In the 2017 assembly elections, BJP had won 99 seats, Congress had won 77 seats, and other six seats. The assembly elections are due in December this year. The voting percentage shown in the survey is BJP 48 percent, Congress 33 percent and AAP 16 percent.

Asked whether BJP should project a CM candidate before the elections, 38 per cent said ‘No’, 36 per cent said ‘BJP should declare a new face’, and 22 per cent said “the present CM”.

Asked in whose name will you cast your vote, 33 per cent said “for Modi”, 24 per cent said, “for the candidate with the best image”.

Asked about the best face for CM, only 22 per cent said Bhupendra Patel, the present CM, 16 per cent opted for BJP leader Purushottam Rupala, 9 per cent for Congress leader Shaktisinh Gohil, and a whopping 69 per cent said “any other face”.

Madhya Pradesh

In the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly, BJP is set to retain power winning 119 seats, while Congress may win 98 seats and Others 13 seats. In the 2018 elections, BJP had won 109 seats, Congress had won 114 and Others had won seven seats. Voting percentage in opinion poll: BJP 44 per cent and Congress 41 percent.

Asked about their first choice for CM candidate, 38 per cent preferred the current CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, while 31 percent opted for Congress leader Kamal Nath.

Chhattisgarh

In the 90-seat Chhattisgarh assembly BJP is projected to win 48 seats, while the ruling Congress party may win 40 seats. Others may win only 2 seats. In the 2018 elections, Congress had won 68, BJP had won 15 and Others had won 7 seats. Voting percentage in opinion poll: Congress 40 percent and BJP 43 percent.

38 per cent of respondents said they would vote in the name of Modi, while 22 percent opted for Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. Among the choices for CM, 29 percent said they would support State BJP chief Vishnudeo Sai, 24 percent opted for Bhupesh Baghel and 14 percent for ex-CM Raman Singh.

Maharashtra

In the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly, BJP may emerge as the largest party again with 134 seats, while its ally Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena may win 41 seats, meaning that the alliance can win a comfortable majority. NCP may win 44 seats, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena may win 18 seats, Congress may win 38 seats and others 13. Voting percentage in opinion poll: BJP 34.1 percent, NCP 19.6 percent, Congress 16.1 percent, Shinde Shiv Sena 12.6 percent and Uddhav Shiv Sena 9.1 percent. Assembly polls are due in 2024.

Who will be the best face for CM? 38.4 percent opted for Devendra Fadnavis, 11.3 percent for Eknath Shinde, 9.2 percent for Sharad Pawar, 8.6 percent for Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan and 8.1 percent for Uddhav Thackeray.

52 per cent said they wanted to see BJP-Eknath Shiv Sena govt again in 2024, while 32 percent opted for Congress-NCP government. 52 per cent said they will vote “in the name of Modi’, while 32 percent said they will vote “in the name of Sharad Pawar”. 56 percent said the Uddhav-led party is the real Shiv Sena, while 44 percent said the Eknath-led party is the real Shiv Sena.

Punjab

If elections are held now in Punjab, Aam Aadmi Party may retain power but with a reduced majority. In the 117-seat assembly, AAP may win 72 seats, BJP 16 seats, Akali Dal 11 seats, Congress 9 and other nine seats. In this year’s assembly polls, AAP had won 92 seats, Congress 18, Akali Dal 3, BJP 2, and Others 2 seats.

Asked whether they want to change the present government, 46 per cent said ‘No’, 41 per cent said ‘Yes’. Asked about the AAP government’s performance, 32 percent said they were not happy, 31 percent said they were happy, 24 percent said AAP did what they promised, 13 percent said they made a mistake (galti ho gayi).

Uttar Pradesh

In the 403-seat UP assembly, if elections are held now, Yogi Adityanath-led BJP may win 292 seats, Samajwadi Party may win 94 seats, Congress one and others 16 seats. In the assembly polls in March this year, BJP had won 255 seats, Samajwadi Party 111, Congress 1 , BSP 1 and Others 35.

Voting percentage in opinion poll: BJP 44.6 percent and SP 31.3 percent. Asked on which issue would you vote, 38 per cent said “because of Yogi’s popularity”, 26 percent said “sushasan and ration (good governance and ration)”. 56 per cent said “Double engine factor decides the vote” while 39 percent said, “Double engine factor does not decide the vote”.

Bihar

In the 243-seat Bihar assembly, if elections are held now, Rashtriya Janata Dal may get 83 seats and BJP may win 81 seats. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) may win 38 seats and Congress may get 11 seats. LJP may win one seat. Others may win 29 seats. Voting percentage in opinion poll, RJD 26.3 per cent, BJP 23.6 percent, JD-U 13.6 percent, and Congress 7.2 percent. Elections are due in 2025. In the 2020 assembly elections, RJD had won 75, BJP 74, JD-U 43, Congress 19, LJP one and Others 31 seats.

Among the respondents, 39 per cent preferred Narendra Modi, 28 percent preferred Nitish Kumar, and 22 percent opted for Tejashwi Yadav. 45 per cent said they wanted a BJP-JD(U) combine in power, while 22 pc wanted a RJD-Congress combine.

Telangana

Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is set to retain power if assembly elections are held now. TRS may win 76 seats out of a total of 117 assembly seats. BJP may win 21 and Congress may win 12 seats. Owaisi’s AIMIM may win seven seats and Others one. Voting percentage in opinion poll: TRS 42 percent, BJP 28 percent, Congress 23 percent.

36 per cent of respondents said they would vote for KCR’s performance, while 22 percent said they would support Modi. Among CM faces, 41.8 percent support K. Chandrashekhar Rao, 26.8 percent supported Congress leader Uttam Kumar Reddy, and 21.6 percent supported BJP leader B. Sanjay Kumar.

Himachal Pradesh

BJP may retain power in Himachal Pradesh which goes to assembly polls later this year. According to the opinion poll, BJP is projected to win 47 seats, Congress may win 17 seats, AAP one seat and others three. Percentage-wise in opinion poll: BJP 48 percent, Congress 39 percent, AAP 5 percent.

Chief Minister Jairam Thakur leads the popular choice for CM with 26 percent, Congress leader Pratibha Singh with 21 percent, Congress leader Asha Kumari and Union Minister Anurag Thakur with 17-17 percent each.

West Bengal

In the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee stormed to power last year, but if elections are held now, her party Trinamool Congress may retain power with reduced majority. This time, TMC may win 173 seats, BJP may win 112 seats, Congress 2, Left 2, Others five. Voting percentage in opinion poll: TMC 46 percent and BJP 41 percent. In last year’s elections, TMC had won 213 seats, BJP had won 77, Others four. Congress and Left did not win a single seat.

A whopping 46 per cent favoured Mamata Banerjee as CM choice, 24 percent opted for BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, and 20 percent favoured BJP leader Dilip Ghosh.