Mumbai: Election strategist and Jan Suraaj Party co-ordinator Prashant Kishor has said that assembly elections in nine states in the next one year will decide the course and stability of prime minister Narendra Modi's NDA government.

Replying to questions from Rajat Sharma in the Aap Ki Adalat show, telecasted on India TV, Prashant Kishor said, "Results in nine state assembly elections, J&K, Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Assam, will decide the stability of this government. These results will also decide the direction this government will take. If BJP loses in five or six out of these nine states, definitely the question of stability will become an issue."

2024 Lok Sabha results

Describing the 2024 Lok Sabha results as ‘a good one’, Prashant Kishor said, "People have sent a clear message to Modi asking him to run the government. They have also conveyed to him that ‘You Are Not God’...run the government, but not as a dictator, run the government like a democratic leader. People have given the message to Modi that he should run the government carefully."

On prospects of Rahul Gandhi emerging as a forceful alternative to Modi, Prashant Kishor said, "As a leader, Rahul Gandhi has miles to go before he reaches a stage where we can say that he has indeed arrived. But yes, Congress as a party has done better than most people expected, including me, and to that extent, we must give credit to Rahul Gandhi. In this election, Rahul has established himself as the leader of Congress, and none others can claim that stature in the party for the next five to ten years. But to establish himself as a leader of the country, he has a long way to go. Winning 99 seats is one thing, and winning 250 to 260 seats is another."

Prashant Kishor gave an analogy about 1977, when the then PM Indira Gandhi lost the Lok Sabha elections and Congress had won 154 Lok Sabha seats, and this time, Congress has won 99 under Rahul's leadership. "Rahul should get the credit for bringing revival of Congress", he said.

The poll strategist said, "The opposition now seems to be appearing more cohesive as a unit. This is a good thing for democracy. At least Parliament is having good debates. ..We should applaud their efforts in setting their own narrative in a coordinated manner."

Jan Suraaj Party

Prashant Kishor, planning to launch his Jan Suraaj Party in Bihar on 2 October, said, "The biggest beneficiaries of this year's Lok Sabha election are parties like us who are offering an alternative to the voters. If the BJP had won 350 to 400 seats, they would not have allowed us to work in Bihar...The opposition will never become weak in a country like India, where more than 60 crore people earn less than Rs 100 per day. No amount of ads, or PR through Facebook, YouTube can impress them. They are not your bonded laborers."

The poll strategist said that BJP would continue to be the political axis on the national scene for the next 25 to 30 years, irrespective of whether it wins or loses elections. "The Congress was the political axis from 1950 till 1990, and there has been a clear shift of this axis from Congress to BJP", he said.

Prashant Kishor admitted that his assessment of BJP winning 300 Lok Sabha seats this time proved wrong. "Those who make political assessment are not gods", he said.

Citing reasons, Prashant Kishor said, "One of my six assessments for the elections proved wrong. BJP's vote share remained at 36 per cent, though there was a 0.7 per cent drop. My assessment was, it should have won 300 seats, but it won 240. The intensity of support that Modi got in 2014 and 2019 was lesser this time. On the ground level, rural distress, farmers' problems and growing inequality was one of the reasons. Uttar Pradesh politics has become a big challenge for BJP and RSS, irrespective of numbers. I admit I made a mistake in assessment. When there is a strong government, there is a fear factor that develops. A wrong perception developed."

Asked whether BJP made a mistake by coining the slogan 'Ab Ki Baar, 400 Paar', Prashant Kishor replied, "The slogan was good, but it was completed not by BJP, but by the opposition. The opposition succeeded in projecting that the BJP wanted 400 seats in order to amend the Constitution and end caste reservation. All credit goes to the opposition. Some loudmouthed BJP leaders also said the party would change the Constitution after winning 400 seats."

On whether the use of words like mujra, mangalsutra by Modi during electioneering could be one of the reasons, Prashant Kishor said, "BJP core supporters never expected such words from the prime minister considering the imagery that was created over the last 10 years about Modi. Instead of galvanizing the cadres, it disappointed them. In some places, it caused panic."

Yogi and Modi

Asked whether the electoral losses in UP were due to reported differences between Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah,  Prashant Kishor replied, "I do not see it as personal rivalry. But if you see from a wider perspective, I can cite the example of 2009 LS elections. At that time, Modi was chief minister of Gujarat and L K Advani was the party's national leader. In 2009, BJP did not do well in Gujarat, but I am not saying Modi's supporters sabotaged Advani's campaign.  The message that went through was that if Advani won, then our leader Modi will take more time to become PM.  Maybe this was what happened in Uttar Pradesh this time."

Prashant Kishor said, "Some people felt that if Modi and Amit Shah won a huge majority, Yogi may lose his chair. What Kejriwal said about Yogi at that time clicked. Even in Bihar, during my padyatra, people asked me whether Yogi would be removed if BJP won 400 seats. It is not that Yogi may have told his supporters to defeat BJP candidates. This is not my topic and I normally do not speak on such matters. But the message surely went out among Yogi's supporters."

Asked whether the arrest of two chief ministers Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren impacted the elections, Prashant Kishor replied negatively. "I don't think so. Had it been so, BJP would have been swept off in Jharkhand. Instead, BJP faced losses in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. If Hemant Soren's arrest could have caused tremors, then the biggest losses to BJP would have been in Bihar and Jharkhand."

On the Bihar results, Prashant Kishor said, "Lalu phenomenon is the biggest factor in Bihar for the last 25-30 years.  A large section of voters in Bihar, who have seen the jungle raj for 15 years during RJD rule, will never vote for Lalu. Nitish Kumar won 12 LS seats only because of this Lalu factor."