Mumbai: The trend of change in the government of Rajasthan every five years since 1998 is likely to continue as the ABP News-CVoter’s (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) first opinion poll has predicted a comfortable majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the forthcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections.
As per the ABP News-CVoter survey, BJP is likely to win 109 -119 seats with a vote share of 45.8 per cent, while the incumbent Congress (INC) Government is likely to win 78 – 88 seats with a vote share of 41 per cent. BSP is likely to win 0-two seats with a vote share of 0.7 per cent and ‘Others’ are predicted to win one-five seats with 12.5 per cent vote share.
During the ABP News-CVoter poll in the State, the respondents were also asked about some of the issues in the State and the country. One of the questions posed was about their preferred choice of chief minister. To this 35 per cent of people favoured Ashok Gehlot (INC), 25 per cent favoured BJP candidate Vasundhara Raje, 19 per cent favoured Sachin Pilot (INC), nine per cent voted for Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, five per cent voted for Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore (BJP) while seven per cent voted for ‘Others’ as their preferred choice for CM.
On the question of the most important issues faced by its people, 28 per cent respondents said it is the issue of ‘rising prices’ while 27 per cent said it is ‘Unemployment’. This was followed by ‘corruption’ (ten per cent), ‘family income/poverty’ (six per cent) and other issues like ‘electricity, road, water, population, and agriculture’ (29 per cent).
On being asked how satisfied the people of Rajasthan are with the works of the Central Government led by prime minister Narendra Modi, 45 per cent respondents said that they are ‘very much satisfied’ while 32 per cent said that they are ‘satisfied to some extent’. 21 per cent said that they are ‘not at all satisfied’ with the works of the Central Government.
Further, on the question of how satisfied they are with the work of the PM Narendra Modi, 55 per cent respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’ with his work. 27 per cent said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ whereas 17 per cent said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.
Similarly, when asked how satisfied the people of Rajasthan are with the performance of the state government, 39 per cent respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’, 36 per cent said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ and 24 per cent said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.
ABP News-CVoter also carried out a snap poll in the state. As per the Snap Poll findings, 76.5 per cent BJP voters said they believe that PM Modi’s visit to Rajasthan on July 27 & 28 will help the BJP in the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly Elections, while 18.1 per cent BJP voters said that it will not help the party to win the elections. On being asked the same question, 39.6 per cent Congress voters said that PM Modi’s visit will help the BJP to win the elections while 50 per cent Congress voters did not agree with the same.
When asked if BJP should project CM’s face in Rajasthan: 61.7 per cent BJP voters said ‘YES’ while 27.5 per cent said ‘NO’. On the same question, 46.7 per cent Congress voters said ‘YES’ and 34.8 per cent said ‘NO’.
On the question of who the CM face from the Congress side should be, in the forthcoming elections, 33.3 per cent BJP voters favoured Ashok Gehlot, 30.9 per cent favoured Sachin Pilot and 28.1 per cent said they would neither favour Ashok Gehlot nor Sachin Pilot as Congress’s CM face. When the same question was posed to the Congress voters, 54.7 per cent favoured Ashok Gehlot, 28 per cent favoured Sachin Pilot and 13.5 per cent said they favour neither Ashok Gehlot nor Sachin Pilot.
Reacting on the recent announcement made by the Congress that its two leaders – Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot will contest the elections unitedly, respondents were asked if this pact can prove to be a masterstroke for the Congress party. To this, 37.1 per cent BJP voters said ‘YES’ and 41.8 per cent said ‘NO’. Responding to the same question, 58.6 per cent Congress voters said ‘YES’ while 23.1 per cent said ‘NO’.
As part of the ABP News-CVoter Snap Poll, the respondents were also asked if they think that the Rajasthan government's scheme to provide cooking gas cylinders for Rs. 500 to the beneficiaries of Ujjwala Yojana and BPL card holders will help the Congress party in the Assembly elections. To this, 39.1 per cent BJP voters said ‘YES’ whereas 52.6 per cent said ‘NO’. While 67.6 per cent Congress voters believe that this scheme will help its party win the elections. However, there are 23.7 per cent Congress voters who believe this won’t help the Congress party.
Methodology:
This poll is based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide and represents all segments.
Time frame: 26 June - 25 July
MOE (Margin of Error)
Sample Size of Opinion Poll (Seat Range and Vote Share - Rajasthan): 14085 respondents
Sample Size of Snap Poll (Rajasthan): 1885
LS Seats Covered – 25
VS Seats Covered – 200
MOE +/- 3 per cent to +/- 5 per cent
Confidence Level – 95 per cent
